How to read the labels on the cards
What the colored labels on every card mean, where they come from, and how far you can trust them.
The Ledger is the set of small colored labels you see on every card. Each label sums up what the price data is saying about that card, so you do not have to read charts to get the picture. You do not need to know trading cards or finance to use it: this page explains every color, label, and icon in plain words.
- Rules, not opinions: every label comes from a fixed set of rules applied in the same way to every card. Nobody picks cards by hand or by personal taste.
- A stamp is the call: it tells you whether the data is favorable, neutral, or a warning. Neutral simply means that no rule is active right now.
- A pattern is a second, separate reading: it names a specific price behavior we recognized, such as a steady climb or a sharp drop. It is calculated independently from the stamp, so the two can tell slightly different stories.
- Every call has a date: each stamp keeps the day it was assigned, so you can see how old a signal is. You find it on the card, shown as "Call" or by hovering over the stamp.
- Calls are checked afterwards: every call is recorded on the day it fires and checked 4 and 8 weeks later, after selling costs and against the market, mistakes included. The live results are public in the track record.
- Tested on past prices: the rules were tried on historical data before being used, separately for cheap and expensive cards, because they behave differently.
The labels describe what usually happened in the past in similar situations. They are not a guarantee and not financial advice: a card with a favorable stamp can still lose value, and the final decision is always yours.
The Ledger in 10 seconds
Three colors cover most cards. The details come below.
Green? The data is favorable to buying this card right now.
Red? The price is falling while more copies go up for sale. If you own the card, plan what to do.
Grey? Nothing special. Waiting is a valid decision.
Four things we tell you about a card
Read them in this order.
- Stamp: The overall reading of the card: favorable, neutral, or a warning. It is the first thing to look at.
- Pattern: A specific price behavior we recognized, such as a steady climb or a sharp drop. It is worked out separately from the stamp, and most cards have none.
- Liquidity: How easy it is to buy or sell the card, based on how many copies are for sale.
- Price band: The price group the card belongs to. Cheap and expensive cards behave differently, so we judge them separately.
Stamp signals
The overall reading of a card. Each stamp has its own color and icon.
The data is favorable to buying.
The card is in a situation that, in our past data, was usually followed by a higher price. It is the most positive stamp.
What you can do: If you were already thinking about buying this card, the numbers are on your side right now. Decide how much you want to spend and do not go over it.
Nothing special is happening.
None of the patterns we test is active. The price can still go up or down, but we have no evidence pointing either way.
What you can do: There is no rush. Waiting for a clearer moment is a perfectly valid choice.
The price is falling and more copies are for sale.
The price is down this week and over the last month, while the number of copies listed for sale has grown. When more people sell and buyers do not keep up, cards in this situation often kept doing worse than the market in the following weeks. A drop alone is not enough: cheap dips are often bought back. It is a warning, not a certainty.
What you can do: If you own the card, decide now at what price you would sell, instead of deciding after another drop. If you do not own it, it is usually better to wait.
A possible recovery, with higher risk.
A card that fell a lot is showing the first signs of climbing back. Sometimes it works, but less reliably than the green stamp.
What you can do: Treat it as a bet: if you buy, use a small amount that you can afford to lose.
Fewer copies are for sale.
The number of copies listed for sale is shrinking while the price keeps edging up. When fewer people sell and others still want the card, the price often rises further.
What you can do: It is an early heads-up, not a confirmation. Keep an eye on the card for a few days before acting.
Not enough data yet.
The card is too new, or has too little price history, for us to say anything reliable.
What you can do: Rely on the price and the chart, and check again later.
Patterns
A specific price behavior we recognized, worked out separately from the stamp. When more than one could apply, only the first in this list is shown. Not every card has one.
The card had a strong month but started slipping this week. This is often what the top of a price run looks like.
How to use it: A warning for owners: consider selling a part, or setting the price at which you will sell.
The card fell sharply this week, and falls like this often continue.
How to use it: Avoid buying just because it looks cheap. If you own it, decide where you will sell before it drops further.
An expensive card (over $200) that has been rising steadily this week and this month, without sudden jumps. In our tests this was the most reliable buy pattern.
How to use it: The strongest pattern we have. It still deserves a budget you are comfortable with: no pattern is right every time.
Past results in our tests: 89% of these were worth more 8 weeks later - typical gain +22.2% - most never fell below the price we flagged them at.
An expensive card (over $200) close to the highest price it has ever had, and still rising. ATH means all-time high.
How to use it: Strong cards often stay strong, but avoid buying right after a very fast jump: wait for the price to settle.
Past results in our tests: 78% of these were worth more 8 weeks later - typical gain +13.8% - most never fell below the price we flagged them at.
An expensive card (over $200) rising slowly and quietly, week after week. This is what it looks like when collectors buy without any hype.
How to use it: Better suited to patient buyers who keep a card for a while than to quick resale.
Past results in our tests: 81% of these were worth more 8 weeks later - typical gain +12.1% - most never fell below the price we flagged them at.
A tournament or promo card that will not be printed again, rising at a healthy pace. Few copies exist and people keep wanting them.
How to use it: Interesting if you like event cards. Steady climbs count here; sudden spikes do not.
Past results in our tests: 74% of these were worth more 8 weeks later - typical gain +15.3% - most never fell below the price we flagged them at.
The copies for sale are shrinking while the price rises. Fewer sellers and steady buyers usually push a price up.
How to use it: Check the number of copies for sale over the next days: if it grows again, the push may be over.
A card under $200 with real gains this week and this month, but without a sudden spike.
How to use it: Decide in advance the price at which you would change your mind, and stick to it.
Past results in our tests: 64% of these were worth more 8 weeks later - typical gain +11.7% - worst dip along the way was usually -0.2%.
The card does not match any of the patterns above right now. This is the normal state for most cards.
How to use it: It is not a negative sign. Look at the stamp and at liquidity instead.
Liquidity
How easy it is to buy or sell a card at a fair price. It depends mostly on how many copies are for sale.
Many copies are for sale. You can usually buy or sell quickly, at a price close to the one shown.
A good number of copies are for sale. Buying and selling is normally easy.
Some copies are for sale. Fine in calm periods, but the price can jump when many people buy or sell at once.
Few copies are for sale. The price you actually pay or receive may differ from the one shown.
Almost no copies are for sale. A single sale can move the price a lot, so read the shown price as a rough indication.
We do not have enough information about the copies for sale to judge.
Why it matters: a favorable stamp on a card with very low liquidity is harder to act on, because there may be nobody selling at the shown price, or nobody buying when you want to sell.
Price bands
A $5 promo and a $500 chase card do not behave the same way, so we judge them separately.
Every card belongs to one of four price groups, based on its typical (median) price over the last 30 days, or on today's price when there is not enough history. Each pattern is tested separately inside each group, and every signal keeps the group it was made in. This way the results of expensive cards are never mixed with those of cheap ones.
75% of the buy signals in this group were worth more 8 weeks later. Typical gain: +17%.
80% of the buy signals in this group were worth more 8 weeks later. Typical gain: +25%.
82% of the buy signals in this group were worth more 8 weeks later. Typical gain: +32%.
84% of the buy signals in this group were worth more 8 weeks later. Typical gain: +21%.
These figures come from a part of our historical data that we kept aside: the rules were never adjusted on it, so it works as a fair test. Past results do not guarantee future ones.
The cheaper the card, the stricter our rules. Buying right after a sudden price jump lost money most often on cheap cards, so that is where we are most careful.
Glossary
A short glossary for anyone new to card prices.
- Listing: A copy of a card that someone has put up for sale on a marketplace.
- Liquidity: How easily a card can be bought or sold without changing its price much.
- Median / typical gain: The middle result: half of the cases did better and half did worse. It is less distorted by rare extreme cases than an average.
- 8 weeks later: We check the price of a card 8 weeks after a signal to see whether the signal was right.
- ATH: All-time high: the highest price a card has ever reached.
- Spike: A sudden, very fast price jump. Spikes often fall back, which is why our rules avoid them.
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